Self-Driving Car Predictions for 2018 from David Silver 关于自动驾驶车辆的2018预测

Here’s what I think the coming year has in store for self-driving cars.

100% Certain

No Level 5 self-driving cars will be deployed anywhere in the world.
No GPS or DGPS system will reliably exceed 10cm localization accuracy on all public roads in the US.

今年L5等级的自动驾驶汽车将不会面世。

在美国的公路上将不会出现可靠定位精度达10厘米的GPS或者DGPS系统。

90% Certain

Level 4 self-driving cars will be available to the general public, on public roads, somewhere in the world.
Deep learning will remain the dominant tool for image classification.
No US road will have a speed limit for autonomous vehicles that is faster than the speed limit for human-driven vehicles.

今年在世界上某些地方，L4等级的自动驾驶汽车将会对公众开放。

深度学习将继续保持在图像分类领域的主导地位。

美国公路对自动驾驶汽车的速度限制将不会超过人类驾驶车辆的速度限制。也就是说自动驾驶车辆的法定最高时速将低于或等于人类驾驶车辆的法定最高时速。

80% Certain

All Level 4 vehicles available to the general public will use lidar.
Somebody will die in a crash while due to a failure of Tesla Autopilot.
Waymo will still have driven more autonomous miles than any other company.
Level 4 self-driving cars will be available to the general public somewhere other than Pittsburgh.
A company will be acquired primarily for its autonomous vehicle capabilities with a valuation above $100M USD.
No dominant technique will emerge for urban motion planning.

所有即将对公众开放的L4等级自动驾驶车辆都将使用雷达。

将会有人在因Tesla Autopilot系统的失误所造成的交通事故中丧命。

Waymo公司将继续保持自动驾驶里程第一的地位。

L4等级自动驾驶汽车会在匹兹堡以外的城市上路。

一家估值超过1亿美元的自动驾驶技术公司将会被收购。

将不会有主导性的技术出现在城市运动规划领域。

70% Certain

Level 4 self-driving cars will be available to the general public somewhere in China.
Tesla will sell the most advanced self-driving system available to the general public.
Deep learning will not be the dominant tool for object classification from point clouds.

L4等级的自动驾驶车辆将会对中国的公众开放。

特斯拉将会出售其所能获得的最先进的自动驾驶系统。

深度学习将不会成为基于点云阵的物体分类的主导工具。

60% Certain

2,000 students will have graduated the Udacity Self-Driving Car Engineer Nanodegree Program.
Level 4 self-driving cars will be available to the general public somewhere in Europe.
Waymo will have exceeded 10 million miles driven.
Tesla will produce 5,000 Model 3 vehicles in a single calendar week.
No member of the general public will die in a Level 4 autonomous vehicle.

将会有2000名学生从Udacity自动驾驶课程毕业。

L4等级的自动驾驶车辆将会对欧洲的公众开放。

Waymo公司的自动驾驶里程积累将超过1千万英里。

特斯拉将有能力在一周内量产5000辆Model-3。

将不会有人因L4自动驾驶汽车的上路而丧命。

50% Certain

Cruise Automation will open its Level 4 fleet to the general public.
Level 3 self-driving cars will be available for purchase by the general public.
A company will be acquired primarily for its autonomous vehicle capabilities with a valuation above $1B USD.
1,000 Udacity students will have jobs in the autonomous vehicle industry.
Self-driving cars will be legal for public use somewhere in India.

 克鲁斯将向公众开放其L4等级的自动驾驶车队。

L3等级的自动驾驶车辆将开始向公众出售。

一家估值超过10亿美元的自动驾驶技术公司将会被收购。

1,000名Udacity学生将在无人驾驶汽车行业工作。

自动驾驶车辆在印度的某个地方将合法提供给公众使用。

In a year, I’ll score these and see how I did!